Rafsanjani photographed at Friday prayers last year (REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl/Files)
Scott Lucas at Enduring America is speculating on Rafsanjani’s planned appearance today at Friday Prayers. What will he say? Will he align himself with plans for an opposition party or will he put his weight behind the current system?
My tendency, given Rafsanjani’s priority not only for survival but to extend his power within the system, is that he will use religious rhetoric to call for reconciliation. That can be read by Government supporters as an acceptance of the Supreme Leader’s authority and President Ahmadinejad’s election, but it can also be read as a re-assertion that the concerns of protesters are legitimate and must be met, not only by a reversal of detentions but also changes in electoral law and a separation of Presidential politics (the Cabinet) and oversight (the Guardian Council).
Rafsanjani will hope that the Supreme Leader will move back from direct involvement in politics (and signs are that this is occurring) and the Revolutionary Guard’s influence will be checked. This will give him more space for his own assertions of power within the system.
I could be far wrong, however. Rafsanjani has the capacity to surprise, as he did with his backing of Ayatollah Khamenei to become Supreme Leader in 1989, and if he thinks the moment is right for either 1) an assertion of faith in the status quo or 2) endorsement of the opposition, he will do so.
At this moment, I would be looking for Rafsanjani’s possible endorsement, given subtly but clearly, of the political front envisaged by Mir Hossein Mousavi. That would not overturn the election but would open the prospect of a broad base for a “reform” within acceptable (for Rafsanjani) limits.
NiacINsight summarizes an article originally published in Persian in Etemaad Meli (pdf), which also speculates on today’s event.
The article quotes a senior member of the Theological Seminary of Qom, Ayatollah Seyyed Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi who, while welcoming the return of the popular Rafsanjani to the Friday Prayer, urged Rafsanjani to pay attention and assess the issues that have unfolded in the past 7 weeks in which Rafsanjani has been absent from the Friday Prayer. Mousavi Tabrizi further encouraged Rafsanjani to “defend the rights of the people, the Friday Prayer must transform into a shelter for those who have been oppressed and seek protection in the arms of the leaders.” In addition, Mousavi Tabrizi would like Rafsanjani to use the Friday Prayer in pressuring the government for the release of those who have been arrested during the recent demonstrations.
John Leyn on BBC Radio is speculating on Friday Prayers (on the radio now) and what will happen. He does not expect Rafsanjani to be conciliatory. He reports on divisions within the opposition with some saying that today’s events will result in an unacceptable compromise and some urging attendance at today’s prayers. Ahmadinejad is far away in Mashaad, while rumor has it that Khatami will also be present.
We’ll all know soon enough.
